Should the CanMNT shake up their striker group ahead of crucial group stage match vs. Qatar?
If the CanMNT were hoping that their World Cup opener against Bosnia & Herzegovina would offer up some more clarity about their striker situation, they were quickly proven wrong.
Instead, they head into their second game of the tournament with more questions than answers when it comes to who they should play up front against Qatar.
Will Jesse Marsch choose to run back the pair of Jonathan David and Tani Oluwaseyi, who he surprisingly elected to start together against Bosnia & Herzegovina, dropping Cyle Larin in place of Oluwaseyi after starting Larin in both of Canada’s pre-World Cup friendlies?
Or, after his crucial goal off the bench against Bosnia, will Larin have done enough to earn his way back into the starting lineup? And, of course, what do you do about Promise David, who assisted Larin and had a similarly bright cameo off the bench - could he be soon primed to start, provided he is actually in the physical condition to do so?
CYLE LARIN TIES THE GAME FOR CANADA! pic.twitter.com/56YfnmtMQT
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 12, 2026
Those are some of the questions that Canada will be asking themselves heading into this week, and that’s without even getting into the discussion surrounding Jonathan David, who was surprisingly taken off after just an hour against Bosnia with Canada trailing, a reflection of the struggles he had in this game and the slump he currently finds himself in.
For example, could there be a reality where Jonathan David doesn’t find himself in the starting lineup against Qatar, which would’ve previously been an inconceivable idea, but one that doesn’t feel so far-fetched after this game? 
Yet, that gives an idea of how things went for Canada against Bosnia & Herzegovina, as they put in a positive attacking performance, but were let down by some haphazard finishing.
Because of that, you can’t help but see what someone like Larin did off the bench and wonder if it’s a sign that Canada should shake things up front.
Did Cyle Larin just play himself back into the #CanMNT Starting XI, or will Jesse Marsch turn to Tani Oluwaseyi once again for Qatar? 👀
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 13, 2026
▶️ Watch @bet365ca FOR THE WIN on OneSoccer & YT pic.twitter.com/vovG6cTcAK
At the same time, while it’s easy to do that after a game like this, does it actually make sense for Canada to do something like that? The answer there is unclear.
If Larin is to slot back into the starting lineup against Qatar, you’d have to assume that he’d replace Oluwaseyi and not J. David, given that David is almost certainly not going to be dropped.
In that case, that would be a big risk for Canada, as they’d be betting on a partnership in Larin and J. David, one that hasn’t exactly worked for both parties lately. For context, neither has scored with the other on the pitch since 2024, when David scored in a Concacaf Nations League quarter-final against a Suriname side that was then-ranked 136th in the FIFA Rankings.
Yes, they haven’t actually shared the field that much since then, only starting five games together across 2025 and 2026, but it’s not as if they’ve shown enough in those starts to warrant keeping that partnership together, especially not at the start of matches.
For context, in those five matches, David generated 0.77 non-penalty xG from seven shots (he had 2.35 xG on nine shots, but 1.58 xG came from a pair of penalties he scored against Iceland, which coincidentally came with Larin off the pitch), giving him 0.11 xG per shot, while Larin has generated 0.50 xG on 11 shots, giving him 0.04 xG per shot.
Meanwhile, in this Bosnia game, both seemed to benefit from the changes Marsch made to Canada’s striker group, as David generated 0.39 xG from three shots despite only featuring 60 minutes as a starter (he typically plays closer to 90 in a game), while Larin had 0.21 xG on two shots in his 15-minute cameo off the bench.
Jonathan David has a big chance but it is saved by Nikola Vasilij. pic.twitter.com/C81F7M2FOF
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 12, 2026
What that shows, though, is why the solution won’t be straightforward for Marsch when it comes to deciding what to do with his strikers in the next match.
To start with David, do you take the fact that he was actually a bit more dangerous statistically in this game, despite a poor performance, as a sign that the goals could be coming for him soon? It can’t be forgotten that he hasn’t scored a non-penalty goal for Canada in his last 10 games, so the reality is that he’s lacking confidence, something that taking him out of the lineup won’t fix.
Then, with Larin, do you take the sign that he scored off the bench as a suggestion that he could start, or that he is better suited for a supersub role? He did score three of his nine goals for Southampton last season off the bench, so it’s not as if it’s an unfamiliar role for him.
Because of that, as well as the pair’s struggles together, it feels like this Qatar match is not the one for Canada to change things up in the attack. With it being a must-win match for Canada, who could all but guarantee qualification to the knockout rounds and put them in pole position to win Group B with a victory, they’ll have to run with what works for them as they prepare for this clash.
On paper, while that striking duo of David and Oluwaseyi has struggled in front of goal lately (on top of David’s Canadian slump, Oluwaseyi is without a goal in 12 appearances for Canada), the reality is that they’re at least being dangerous when together.
Against Bosnia, they were dangerous (Oluwaseyi had 0.18 xG on two shots, with one of them being a glorious opportunity he could’ve done much better on), which is at least encouraging to see. With how Qatar struggled defensively in their tournament opener against Switzerland, as they were lucky only to concede one goal in a game where they conceded 2.41 non-penalty xG, Canada should have opportunities to score in this game.
That could be exactly what the doctor ordered for David, as well as for Oluwaseyi, who now has 7.69 xG on 46 shots for Canada, an average of 0.17 xG per shot, showing his ability to find chances (and given that he only has two goals for Canada, his struggles at finishing those chances).
Tani Oluwaseyi puts one over the net on a big chance. pic.twitter.com/Ykg1b7FUGT
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) June 12, 2026
Because of that, the question surrounding the strikers heading into this Qatar game perhaps shouldn’t be about shaking things up, but instead about figuring out how to use what is already there. 
For example, if you’re to start J. David and Oluwaseyi together, what Larin and P. David’s strong cameos off the bench against Bosnia did is now give you the option to turn to them early if needed, perhaps as soon as half-time.
Either J. David and Oluwaseyi can break their slumps against Qatar, or Larin and P. David can come into the game early to give Canada new attacking life if the goals don’t fall for them in the early proceedings - both are not bad scenarios from a Canadian perspective, provided they score the goals required to win.
Yet, what this all shows is why the discussion around the strikers is so fascinating. Despite his slump, J. David remains the main option for this Canadian team, as he’s scored 13 goals under Marsch - Oluwaseyi, Larin and P. David have combined for seven across that span, for context.
Because of that, the two big goals for Marsch (pun intended) when it comes to the deployment of his strikers going forward are figuring out how to get the most out of J. David and how to get more depth contributions from the other strikers.
Based on what we’ve seen here, the best way to do those things is to run back what worked against Bosnia, just doing so in a more aggressive fashion - and if that doesn’t work, then they can go back to the drawing board against Switzerland.
