Diving into the numbers behind Pacific FC's nightmare 2026 CPL season
After their 1-1 draw against Inter Toronto in Canadian Premier League action last Saturday, Pacific have now gone a calendar year without winning a game, as they’ve now gone 25 CPL matches (and 26 games across all competitions) without a victory since beating Vancouver FC on August 10th, 2025.
Pacific will go a full calendar year without winning a game, with their last victory having come on August 10, 2025 against Vancouver FC 🤯#CPLSoccer pic.twitter.com/m9qgXr0Gk7
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 8, 2026
Winless to start the 2026 CPL season, having drawn four and lost 11 of their first 15 games, their playoff hopes are arguably already dead despite being barely past the halfway point of this campaign.
Given that they sit 20 points behind the last playoff spot, it’s hard to imagine Pacific coming anywhere close to making the postseason at this rate, as their best hope of success appears to be catching seventh-place Inter Toronto, who are still a distant 10 points ahead of Pacific.
Certainly, Pacific appears to be aware of that reality and have already begun to plan for 2027, which is why they brought in new head coach Terry Dunfield to take over from longtime manager James Merriman earlier this season. By bringing in Dunfield at this stage, Pacific are hoping that the former Toronto FC interim head coach can start to lay the foundation for long-term success, helping them salvage this lost season by using it as a building block for the future.
Pacific has its new head coach 👀
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) May 28, 2026
Terry Dunfield joins the Tridents on a deal that runs through the 2027 season, with an option for an additional year 🔱
He will officially join the club on July 5.#CPLSoccer pic.twitter.com/tOgOHPupw0
So far, performances have been solid under Dunfield, who has overseen three games from the touchline, although he hasn’t been able to find a win - his first two games were a pair of one-goal losses to Atlético Ottawa and FC Supra du Québec, before he drew Toronto 1-1 this past weekend to earn his first point.
Considering that Pacific took the lead in each of those three games, that at least shows that they’ve come close to snapping this run as of late - it only feels like a matter of time until Pacific gets that first win, and perhaps this weekend could be the perfect time to do that, given that they face rivals Vancouver FC in the latest installment of the Salish Sea Derby (fitting given that their last win came against them).
GOAL 🔱
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 8, 2026
Yann Toualy puts @Pacificfccpl ahead at home after a great run by Ronan Kratt 👀
🔴 Watch #CPLSoccer on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/fFKBAFViOw
To pick up on that earlier point, though, it must be said that while Pacific has struggled this year, they’ve not exactly had luck on their side - after dropping two points against Toronto, they’ve now dropped 17 points this season, which leads the CPL. While that shows that they’ve struggled defensively and aren’t doing a great job of protecting their leads, you’d have thought that they’d have lucked their way into a win by now, even once, given that statistic shows they’re taking the lead in games (for context, if Pacific had 17 more points right now, they’d be three points behind the CPL’s final playoff spot).
With that in mind, however, it’s worth diving into the question: is Pacific truly as bad as their record indicates? By the eye test, it’s hard to say yes, and when looking at the points they’ve dropped, that seems to add to the idea that they’ve been more sloppy than anything - but do the numbers back up that statement? 
Firstly, to do that, you have to look at Pacific’s raw numbers and see how they compare to the rest of the CPL.
Naturally, as one would expect for a team in last place, Pacific have struggled at both ends of the pitch this season, as they’ve scored just 17 goals and have conceded 33, giving them a goal differential of -16. For those curious, that has them second-last in the CPL in goals for, and last in both goals against and goal differential.
Therefore, when seeing that, it’s interesting to dive into the advanced numbers to see what’s truly ailed them.
To begin, there’s their attack, which, to be fair, has not been their biggest issue as of late - they’ve now scored in eight consecutive CPL games after this Toronto draw, which is pretty solid.
Yet, while those numbers are pretty solid, the advanced numbers actually surprise here - Pacific have generated 22.95 xG, which is third in the entire CPL. That is not a typo.
Even when you look at non-penalty xG, of which Pacific has generated 20.58, Pacific is still third in the CPL, so it’s not as if they benefited from spot kicks or anything of the sort, either.
Immediately that stands out, as it suggests that Pacific could have among the best attacks in the league if they were more clinical.
While that shows that improving their finishing is a big priority for the rest of the season, it does also give us a hint that the defending numbers are arguably the bigger worry, especially in the context of Pacific’s recent offensive form. And to get an idea of how they’ve performed offensively lately, they’ve scored 11 goals in the last eight games, a pace that would’ve had them around 21 goals from the 15 games they’ve played, which is still actually underperforming their xG but a lot closer to their true finishing level, showing that they’ve already taken steps towards improving their finishing.
What that means, however, is that defensively, the alarm bells are starting to ring a bit more. Pacific have conceded 27.67 xG, which is third-worst in the league, with only Atlético Ottawa (29.92 xG) and Inter Toronto (27.93 xG) sitting with worse figures.
Therefore, while they’ve perhaps been unlucky to concede 33 goals, they’d still be one of the worst teams defensively even if they conceded 27 goals (which would have them tied for third-worst in the CPL behind Ottawa and Toronto).
For what it’s worth, though, they have conceded 23.72 non-penalty xG, which still has them third-last in that category, but puts them closer to fourth-last Halifax Wanderers, who have conceded 26.07 xG and 21.34 non-penalty xG. What that shows is that Pacific have had some discipline issues that have hurt them defensively, given that they’ve given up the second-most penalties in the league with five (only behind the Wanderers, who have conceded six).
Yet, what those numbers demonstrate is what Dunfield’s big goal is going forward - to fix his team’s defence.
In the three games he’s taken charge of, Pacific have generated 7.52 xG (over 2.5 xG per game), but have conceded 5.51 xG (over 1.8 xG per game) - although it’s worth noting that they generated 4.77 of that offensive xG in Dunfield’s debut, a 3-2 loss to Atlético Ottawa in a game they absolutely should’ve won.
Offensively, there are signs that this Pacific team has a strong idea of what they’re doing on the ball, which is why they’re fourth in the CPL in average possession per match, third in accurate passes per match, fourth in big chances generated and fourth in accurate crosses. They could be a bit more dangerous in terms of getting the ball to the box, given that they sit sixth in touches in the opposition box, but the bigger stat offensively is the fact that they sit fourth in big chances missed with a whopping 22 (which is just three behind league leader Cavalry) - they haven’t been clinical enough offensively, plain and simple.
But given that they’ve been doing a lot of the right things on the ball, it’s easier to fix that lack of clinical finishing, especially when remembering that they’ve got one of the most dangerous strikers in the CPL up front in Alejandro Díaz, who has scored just four CPL goals this season (including two non-penalty goals). Typically, one would expect him to be at the top of the Golden Boot race, instead of struggling the way he has.
Defensively, though, Pacific have to be a lot tidier, as reflected in their advanced numbers, as well as by other stats, such as the fact that Pacific have made 10 errors leading to shots, which is tied for 1st in the CPL (and they’ve conceded four times from such errors, which is actually pretty lucky).
GOAL 👑
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 8, 2026
Luke Singh takes advantage of a mistake by Pacific to put @inter__toronto level in Langford 🔥😬
🔴 Watch #CPLSoccer on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/fuKto9qu7P
They tidy up defensively, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to turn some of their recent performances into wins, especially considering the offensive numbers they’ve generated as of late.
Of course, that’s half the battle - the reality is that for a team like this to be in this situation, they’ve also dealt with intangibles that can’t be reflected statistically, such as a loss of confidence. But sometimes, the best way to fix a lack of confidence is to get back to basics and to focus on structure, especially defensively - a lack of defensive confidence can be caused by a lack of defensive structure, and vice versa, so it’s important to fix the problem at the source.
From there, finding a way to be more clinical in attack will play a big role - and it’ll be easier to do that if things are tidier defensively. You can be more confident in attack when knowing that you have a stingier defensive line behind you, as you don’t need to carry the pressure of needing to be perfect in front of goal.
With how many chances Pacific are creating, they won’t need to score by the boatload if they can tighten up defensively, which is why that’ll be the big area of focus going forward - starting this weekend with their clash against Vancouver FC.
While they might not have much to play for in 2026, they can begin their 2027 turnaround right now - fittingly, Vancouver serves as an example of what that can look like, as they finished 2025 strongly under interim head coach Martin Nash, who has since turned Vancouver from a last-place team to one that is now one of the best in the CPL.
